It's easy to see the looming conflict as yet another African war, a bloody ethnic dispute between the old foes of Christian Ethiopia and Muslim Somalia. But behind the scenes, there are other forces at work.
Ever since 9/11, Somalis have feared that the War on Terror would come knocking, and that day appears to have arrived. The troops may be Ethiopian, but there is evidence that US forces are providing covert training, and perhaps even logistical support.
To America, Somalia has been the darkest corner of Africa since the collapse of its central government 15 years ago. Anarchy has camouflaged al-Qaeda cells that attacked US bases there long before 9/11. Since Clinton's botched 1997 invasion, and the death of 19 marines in the 'Blackhawk Down' incident, a direct US military response has been politically impossible.
Attempts at a diplomatic solution have failed, and a UN/Ethiopian/ US-backed interim government has been unable to assert its authority in any meaningful way.
The tipping point towards another attempt at a military solution came with the rise to power of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) in June this year. This almost Taliban-style group may have brought law and order to Mogadishu and much of southern Somalia, but it has angered the US with its fiery Islamist rhetoric.
The US Assistant Secretary of State, Jendayi Frazer, describes the UIC as "extremists to the core... terrorists", and accuses them of working with al-Qaeda. She has publicly warned against a direct military response, but there is no doubt the US has been covertly involved with the Ethiopian forces currently on the offensive against the UIC.
As early as 2003 the US Army's 10th Mountain Division was training the Ethiopian military on small-unit tactics and 'counter terrorism'. In 2004 General John Abizaid, chief of the US Central Command, visited Ethiopia to meet Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and discuss "further strengthening co-operation" on issues affecting regional stability in the Horn of Africa. Somali media recently reported a meeting between Ethiopian, American and Yemeni officers to discuss ways to counter the rise of the UIC, and earlier this month the US lobbied for a UN Security Council resolution to deploy African peacekeepers in support of the interim government - to the fury of the UIC.
There is even some evidence US forces may be covertly involved on the ground. On December 4, a Kenyan newspaper, the Standard, reported that US marines had arrived on the Somali border "with a convoy of trucks with sophisticated military and engineering equipment", having earlier spent nearly $3m on health, education and water projects, seemingly as sweeteners for local communities.
Ethiopia's Meles Zenawi is an old hand at all this. He has been a US ally in the region since the 1970s when the CIA first supported him against the Soviet-backed Mengistu Haile Mariam. Now al-Qaeda has replaced communism as the common enemy, but it seems Zenawi once again has a role to play in the US battle for influence in Africa.
